South Division Second Half Preview

High Desert Mavericks

Can make the playoffs by:
- Winning more games in the second half than Inland Empire, Lancaster and Rancho Cucamonga

- Winning more overall games than two of these three teams: Inland Empire (+11 games), Lancaster (+14 games) or Rancho Cucamonga (-2 games)

AA affiliate: West Tenn 39-31 (overall), 2nd in SL North, 4 GB
A affiliate: Clinton 37-32, 5th in MWL West, 6.5 GB

Possible players lost to promotion
Kenn Kasparek
Rich Poythress

Possible players gained from promotion
Taylor Stanton

All of the Seattle affiliates near High Desert are competitive, so I wouldn't expect any player movement to get players into playoff races. Poythress would be a bit of a loss from the middle of the lineup, but at this point, it's safe to say the Seattle organization can put just about anyone in this lineup and get production. Poythress was actually assigned to AA at the end of last year, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go there again. Kasparek had a great half, and since he's an older player, a challenge wouldn't be a bad idea.

Even if Poythress is assigned to West Tenn again, the Mavericks are still going to score runs. Since Dennis Raben is coming off the knee injury, he might stay at this level for the remainder of the season. Johermyn Chavez and Denny Almonte probably aren't going anywhere because they're young and could still refine their plate approach a lot. No matter who stays or goes, this team is going to score a lot of runs. Only one regular has an OPS below the league average, and he just misses by a few points. Clinton has a few hitters doing very well, but they're pretty young, and there's no rush.

High Desert's pitching has been pretty good, but I think the only player they're in danger of losing is Kenn Kasparek. He's 24 years old, two years above the league average, and he's having a great season, especially considering the Stater Bros. Stadium disadvantage. He's not striking many batters out, unlike last season, but he's still been very effective. Andrew Carraway and Bobby LaFromboise have both had stretches where they've been very effective this season, but they haven't been so dominant that they should be promoted. If Anthony Vasquez keeps up his hot start, the Mavericks will have a really deep rotation, which they need to compete against some of the other top teams in the league. The bullpen needs to get better, but the starters are capable of pitching deep into the games which helps, unless they have innings limits to worry about.

High Desert should make the playoffs pretty easily. Of course anything could happen, but Inland Empire and Lancaster have huge holes to dig out of, and the Mavericks were pretty consistent throughout the half. They struggled about when they dropped out of contention officially, but if the starters pitch the way they're capable of, this team will be fine. The hitting will always be there for High Desert, whether or not they lose Poythress, Raben or anyone else to promotion.

Inland Empire 66ers

Can make the playoffs by:
- Winning more games in the second half than High Desert, Lancaster and Rancho Cucamonga

- Winning more games overall than two of these three teams: High Desert (-11 games), Lancaster (+3 games) or Rancho Cucamonga (-13 games)

AA affiliate: Chattanooga 34-36 (overall), 4th in SL North, 9 GB
A affiliate: Great Lakes 43-26, 2nd in MWL West, 1 GB

Possible players lost to promotion
Travis Denker
Aaron Miller

Possible players gained from position
Christian Lara
Justin Miller
Jerry Sands
Will Savage
Blake Smith
Steve Smith
Luis Vasquez
Josh Wall

I don't mean to state the obvious, but Inland Empire's first half didn't go as well as a lot of people probably expected, including myself. Kyle Russell could've been the best player in the league during the first half, but now that he's in Chattanooga, it's going to be difficult for the roster to score runs as it currently stands. Chattanooga has a slightly better chance to make the playoffs, so if the Dodgers think any 66ers deserve a promotion, they'll likely get it like a few other players already have.

This lineup lacked depth with Russell, and now that he's gone and Tony Delmonico is on the DL, they're in a lot of trouble. Travis Denker is a veteran and solid player, but he's not hitting as well as he was when he was first added to the roster. Pedro Baez and Austin Gallagher have dealt with injuries this year and haven't produced like the 66ers might have hoped. Now that Russell's gone, the team doesn't have much power at all. There are a few players at Great Lakes that could help though. They have an older, experienced roster which is probably a reason why they have such a good record, but the Dodgers might not want to promote anyone to a struggling team. Jerry Sands has been killing the ball, and if he was promoted to Inland Empire, he could replace a lot of what they lost when Kyle Russell was promoted to Chattanooga.

The starting rotation has some talent, and if Inland Empire is going to turn it around, it's going to be because the starters find some consistency. Aaron Miller has had a great season, and although I listed him in the possible promotion section, I'd lean towards him staying the whole season because he's pretty new to the professional rankings, and this is also the first time he's focused on only pitching. Ethan Martin and Nate Eovaldi both have great stuff, but the results have been on and off. Eovaldi has been getting more strikeouts lately and making the All Star team is surely a confidence booster. If Martin starts commanding his pitches better, he could become one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.

Ultimately, it's going to be tough for Inland Empire to make a comeback. Because Great Lakes is having such a good season, I don't expect much help to arrive. The bullpen could use some fresh arms since holding leads has been a big issue, and Great Lakes has some guys that actually have Cal League experience that could come back. Without Kyle Russell, the lineup really lacks punch and isn't going to score enough runs to win on most nights.

Lake Elsinore Storm

Already clinched the playoffs

AA affiliate: San Antonio 35-35 (overall), 4th place in TL South, 3.5 GB
A affiliate: Fort Wayne, 36-34, 4th place in MWL East, 8.5 GB

Possible players lost to promotion
Anthony Bass
Brad Brach
Drew Cumberland
Cole Figueroa
Dan Robertson
Nick Schmidt
Blake Tekotte

Possible players gained from promotion
Dean Anna
Danny Payne
Michael Watt

I don't expect all of those guys or even most of them to be promoted to San Antonio, but they have all played well this year. Cumberland has already added been added to the San Antonio roster, and it's possible are more to come. Fort Wayne has some good players, but they're definitely not as good as last year's Fort Wayne team, which makes up most of this year's Lake Elsinore team. It's going to be interesting to see what changes are made throughout the course of the second half.

Right now, this lineup is still deep, even with the promotion of Drew Cumberland. It might allow for Dan Robertson or Blake Tekotte to get more AB at the top of the lineup. It all depends on who San Diego wants to promote to AA. A number of players in addition to Cumberland deserve it, including the aforementioned Tekotte and Robertson, as well as on base machine Cole Figueroa. If one or more players are promoted, a player like Jaff Decker is going to have to step up. He's one of the best prospects in the organization, but whether it's due to the hamstring injury or missing a lot of spring training, hasn't produced anything so far this year. If Decker and fellow former first rounder Allan Dykstra improve in the second half, the Lake Elsinore lineup will be able to withstand any loss of players.

It's possible that the pitching staff looks completely different at the end of the half. There were comments from the Lake Elsinore pitching coach a few days ago about the innings limits and how they'll affect the team. Jorge Reyes and Juan Oramas will pitch on the same day for the remainder of the season and alternate starting/relieving each turn in the rotation. If Anthony Bass remains with the team and isn't promoted, he'll be impacted too. Fortunately for the Storm, they already clinched a spot in the playoffs and can afford to mess around with their pitching a little bit. It's a deep bullpen, so if Brad Brach is promoted, they should be able to find someone to fill in and close games.

Fortunately for the Storm, they don't have to worry about making the playoffs, so promotions aren't a big deal. They can manage the pitching staff's innings, keep the hitters fresh and work some players into new roles if necessary. If too many players aren't promoted, this team is going to win a lot of games again, so the only question is if Cumberland's promotion is an isolated one or a sign of things to come.

Lancaster JetHawks

Can make the playoffs by:

- Winning more games in the second half than High Desert, Inland Empire and Rancho Cucamonga

- Winning more overall games than two of these three teams: High Desert (-14 games), Inland Empire (-3 games) or Rancho Cucamonga (-16 games)

AA affiliate: Corpus Christi 36-34, 2nd in TL South, 2.5 GB
A affiliate: Lexington 35-35, 4th in SAL South, 7 GB

Possible players lost to promotion
Brandon Barnes

Possible players gained from promotion
Kody Hinze
J.D. Martinez

What is there to say? The first half was a total disaster. The team struggled from the moment the lineup was introduced on Opening Day, and things never really got any better. The pitching was shelled at Clear Channel Stadium, and the hitters didn't benefit from the home field advantage. I don't expect much player movement at these levels in the system because not many players at Lancaster have shown enough to earn a promotion, and there's no real reason to promote someone to the JetHawks.

The offense has just not been good so far, despite how hitter-friendly the stadium is. A number of players were promoted to AAA Round Rock during the break, and that could impact the roster if it's not just to get them some at bats during the time off. Albert Cartwright and Brandon Barnes have been the team's best offensive threats so far, but beyond them, haven't gotten much consistent support. Jay Austin started the season hot but cooled off tremendously. Austin returning to that form in the second half could spark this team at the top of the lineup, but a toolsy player like him will go through inconsistent periods.

Of course pitching at Clear Channel Stadium is difficult, but most of the staff has had a lot of problems on the road too. Dallas Keuchel has emerged as the team's best and most consistent starter. He goes deep into games and limits the opponent's scoring opportunities. Shane Wolf has been good away from home which obviously isn't surprising. Ross Seaton and Kyle Greenwalt have gotten hit pretty hard no matter the venue, but they're young starters and have a lot of room to improve. Brad Dydalewicz had an incredibly rough season before being sent down to Lexington, and the JetHawks have not been able to fill the void in the rotation. David Berner has done a very good job closing games, but the rest of the bullpen could stand to make some improvements.

Like Inland Empire, I really can't feel confident picking them to make the playoffs. They didn't really show anything in the first half that indicates they could break out at some point. The pitching improving could definitely help, but the lineup hasn't been as productive as they could be at Clear Channel Stadium. Right now, it looks like there are too many holes on the roster, but there is still plenty of time left in the season.

Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Can make the playoffs by:
- Winning more second half games than High Desert, Inland Empire and Lancaster

- Winning more overall games than two of these three teams: High Desert (+2 games), Inland Empire (+13 games) or Lancaster (+16 games)

AA affiliate: Arkansas 26-44 (overall), 4th place in TL North, 16.5 GB
A affiliate: Cedar Rapids 43-25, 1st place in MWL West

Possible players lost to promotion
None that stand out

Possible players gained from promotion
Garrett Richards
Mike Trout

Okay, Mike Trout being promoted is more wishful thinking than anything. However, the Angels have shown this year that players that deserve a promotion will get it, regardless of age or the competitive situation of the team. The Quakes have been helped and hurt by this. They've lost Tyler Chatwood, Will Smith, Roberto Lopez and some relievers, but they've also gained players like Luis Jimenez and Pat Corbin from Cedar Rapids.

The Quakes lineup should remain intact for the second half. No one is really dominating like Roberto Lopez was at the time of his promotion to AA. The team has a lot of speed, led by pro baseball's leading base stealer Tyson Auer and Alexi Amarista. Gabe Jacobo has provided the power so far, and if anyone else starts hitting home runs, this lineup will have a lot of different ways to attack opposing pitching. Obviously adding Mike Trout would help out this lineup significantly. Amarista has cooled off a bit lately, but he's a really good hitter and should snap out of it soon.

Coming into the season, it looked like the Quakes would have a really good rotation led by two of Anaheim's good prospects, Will Smith and Tyler Chatwood. They both performed, and now they're both gone. The Quakes pitching has been good considering this is not how they drew it up in the beginning of the season, and Pat Corbin is a big part of that. He earned a promotion from Cedar Rapids, and he's continuing his success with Rancho Cucamonga. Matt Shoemaker has done a great job throwing a lot of innings, and that's helped stabilize the rotation. I'd like to see if Pil Joon Jang can sustain some success at this level. His two spot starts have been good, and he deserves a shot for more than one start at a time.

Because Inland Empire and Lancaster have had rough seasons, the Quakes should be in good shape to make the playoffs. If they can get long term answers in the rotation instead of shuffling guys in and out, they'll have a shot to go head to head with the other good teams in the league in the playoffs. The lineup really disrupts pitching while on the bases, and they put the ball in play a lot and score enough runs to win.