North Division Second Half Preview

Bakersfield Blaze

Can make the playoffs by:
- Winning more games in the second half than Modesto, Stockton and Visalia

- Winning more overall games than two of these three teams: Modesto (-8 games), Stockton (-2 games) or Visalia (-8 games)

AA affiliate: Frisco 37-31, clinched 1st half title in TL South
A affiliate: Hickory 40-30, 2nd in SAL North, 2 GB

Possible players lost to promotion
Engel Beltre
Davis Stoneburner
Michael Main
John Whittleman

Possible players gained from promotion
Cody Podroza
Trevor Hurley
Cristian Santana

Bakersfield is in a very difficult position. They're sandwiched by an affiliate that has already clinched a playoff berth and one that didn't clinch the first half title but is in contention for the postseason. If the Texas organization cares about their players getting postseason experience, then the Blaze could be in for a rough half in regards to player movement because the surrounding affiliates are either in the playoffs already or have a very reasonable chance of making it.

The lineup has to improve for Bakersfield to have a chance to move up in the standings. Unfortunately for them, their two best players could be lost to AA. John Whittleman has spent enough time in the Cal League, and at some point he has to go back to Frisco and prove whether or not he can play at that level. Engel Beltre is having a very good season and improving on some of last year's numbers, so Texas could promote him to AA again to see if he fairs any better than last year. If the Blaze lose either of those players, someone will have to be added from Hickory, or one player already on the roster has to step up. Mike Bianucci is repeating the level and heating up a bit, and Tommy Mendonca was a pretty high draft pick that hasn't performed up to expectations yet.

Bakersfield's pitching has been about average, and they have the talent to improve. However, staff ace Michael Main could be promoted at any time. Between 2009 and 2010, he has 28 appearances and 26 starts for Bakersfield and has shown improvement over last year's numbers, so he might be ready to be tested at AA. Carlos Pimentel has been up and down this season and could be a very good pitcher if he finds consistency. Wilmer Font might have the best stuff on the staff, and his continued development will be key to Bakersfield turning around the season and making the playoffs. I don't see them getting any pitching help from Hickory. Their successful starters are all pretty young, and there's no real reason to promote them near the end of the season.

Despite finishing pretty far back in the first half, I don't think the North division is settled yet, and Bakersfield made a great run to sneak into the playoffs last season. They have the pitching to do it, and it's going to take some of the experienced hitters stepping up to improve the offense and support the starters. What could hurt them is their good players getting promoted and no reinforcements arriving, but it's not guaranteed that it will happen.

Modesto Nuts

Can make the playoffs by:
- Winning more games in the second half than Bakersfield, Stockton and Visalia

- Winning more games overall than two of these three teams: Bakersfield (+8 games), Stockton (+6 games) or Visalia (tied)

AA affiliate: Tulsa 29-39, 3rd in TL North, 11.5 GB
A affiliate: Asheville 29-40, 7th in SAL South, 12.5 GB

Possible players lost to promotion
Jimmy Cesario
Ethan Hollingsworth
Juan Nicasio
Jordan Pacheco
Brian Rike

Possible players gained from promotion
Avery Barnes
Alan DeRatt
Orlando Sandoval

Modesto is in the opposite situation Bakersfield is in. They're the affiliate in contention while Tulsa and Asheville aren't having very good seasons. This makes it more likely that Modesto will benefit from player movement in the minors, so they can have a chance to compete for the championship. Looking over the career path of a number of players in the Colorado system, they tend to let players go level by level one year at a time, so I don't expect many promotions to or from Modesto.

Modesto's lineup is off to a solid start this season. They don't hit any home runs, but they're still about average in other offensive categories. It's been said that they traditionally hit better in the second half, so whether it's because of the weather or making adjustments, maybe they'll start hitting for a little more power and add a new dimension to the offense. The lineup has some solid players, including two All Stars in Jimmy Cesario and Jordan Pacheco, but the better hitters are generally older, more experienced players that could be promoted. Asheville has some good talent, but they're pretty young players that probably won't change levels this season.

The pitching has been pretty average as well, but a few pitchers are having good years. Ethan Hollingsworth made the All Star team, but the Nuts could be in danger of losing him to AA Tulsa. He's having a great year and spent some of 2009 with Modesto too, so he has the experience to move on. Juan Nicasio is also having a very good season, but other than that the rotation needs to improve. Dan Houston is a name to watch, but along with Rob Scahill and Kenny Durst, is allowing way too many hits and baserunners. They probably won't get any help from Asheville either. Tyler Matzek is finally pitching in pro ball, but he's too inexperienced to be called up.

I think the Modesto team as it is now is the team that finishes the season. They had a very good half and should have a great chance to make the postseason. If Colorado wants some Asheville players to play on a winning team, they could get a few extra players, but I wouldn't count on it. It seems like hardly anyone plays at multiple levels a year if Colorado can help it. If one or two of the starters can improve over the course of the second half, they're going to be in good shape.

San Jose Giants

Already clinched the playoffs

AA affiliate: Richmond 32-35, 5th place EL South, 13.5 GB
A affiliate: Augusta 41-29, 2nd place SAL South, 1 GB

Possible players lost to promotion
Brandon Belt
Juan Perez
Eric Surkamp
Craig Westcott

Possible players gained from promotion
None that I think are likely

Obviously San Jose is in great shape after winning another first half title. Augusta is in contention in the SAL, and most of their talent is pretty young. I don't expect many roster changes in the second half for the Giants, not that they really need it. I'm sure one or two players could be added, but no one really stood out as needing a promotion. San Jose has a number of older players that could be promoted if they chose, and guys like Brandon Belt deserve a new challenge.

The Giants' offense has been very good so far, and they can attack teams in a lot of different ways. They're tied for the league lead in steals, make good contact and hit a lot of doubles. Brandon Belt has been a star, and as long as he's in the lineup the Giants should be able to score a lot of runs. He was rumored to be promoted around the same time Kyle Russell was, but he's obviously still with San Jose. Because Richmond is struggling a bit, I don't expect anyone to be promoted for competitive purposes, but they could definitely promote Belt because he just has nothing left to prove in the Cal League. If Josh Mazzola comes back from his injury, that could speed up the process.

This rotation could remain mostly intact. Eric Surkamp got a memorable cup of coffee at the end of last season, but that didn't last long. Surkamp could remain with San Jose for the remainder of the year, and Justin Fitzgerald should too. He's had a good year so far, but since this is the first time in his career he's starting, they'll probably let him stay at the same level. Craig Westcott is already 24 so he could use a new challenge, but this is his first full year in pro ball. Because the Giants use a six man rotation, I don't think innings limits will ever be a problem. Everyone should be fresh, and it seems like San Jose can plug in pitcher after pitcher in the rotation and never misses a beat.

What else is new? San Jose clinched a playoff spot and looks like a complete team. They can't coast through the second half of course, but they can make sure to get everyone at bats and manage the innings the pitching staff throws. Like Modesto, I don't anticipate much player movement coming into San Jose. Brandon Belt deserves a promotion because he's killing the ball and needs a challenge, so he could be promoted. However, I expect most of the roster to stay put.

Stockton Ports

Can make the playoffs by:
- Winning more games in the second half than Bakersfield, Modesto and Visalia

- Winning more overall games than two of these three teams: Bakersfield (+2 games), Modesto (-8 games) or Visalia (-8 games)

AA affiliate: Midland, 35-34, 3rd in TL South, 2.5 GB
A affiliate: Kane County 32-37, 6th place in MWL Western, 11.5 GB

Possible players lost to promotion
Shawn Haviland
Ben Hornbeck
Jermaine Mitchell

Possible players gained from promotion
Jose Guzman
Bo Schultz
Kent Walton

Stockton has been pretty mediocre for pretty much the entire half, spending most of it on 4th or 5th. I picked them to make the playoffs, so I want to believe that not all hope is lost. Midland has the best chance of making the postseason, and the Oakland organization isn't shy about moving players throughout the year. Shawn Haviland was promoted at the beginning of the break, and I'm not sure if that's on a long term basis or just for a spot start or two. Both Jermaine Mitchell and Ben Hornbeck have some AA experience and could go back to Midland.

I'll say it until I'm blue in the face, but Ryan Ortiz needs to play more. If he starts getting more AB in the second half, the offense will score more runs, which has been a problem for Stockton this year. Kent Walton is an older player in the MWL having a good year, and he could add a different kind of hitter to the lineup as a better contact guy. If Grant Green continues adjusting to professional baseball, he could be a big part of the lineup. Stephen Parker has had a great season and had the winning hit in the All Star game, so there are definitely pieces there for a great lineup.

Stockton's pitching hasn't been good, and of course that's going to have to improve. Unfortunately, they could possibly lose two of their better starters to Midland at some point, and that's not going to help. Other players are going to have to step up, since it doesn't seem like they'll get much help from A Kane County. Kenny Smalley has been a disappointment, but he certainly has the talent to turn it around. Paul Oseguera is a Cal League veteran that could provide stability, and Michael Madsen had some good starts at the end of the half. If they receive any pitching help from Kane County, it'll probably be in the bullpen which doesn't need much help at all.

Like I said with Bakersfield, I think the North is still wide open even though the Ports are quite a few games back at the moment. Modesto and Visalia each had stretches of poor play in the first half, so they're not untouchable in the last two playoff slots. For Stockton to catch either one of them, the pitching needs to be a lot better, whether that comes from a lower level in the minors or a player already on the roster improving. The offense is probably playoff caliber, but it would be great if they put the ball in play more too.

Visalia Rawhide

Can make the playoffs by:
- Winning more games in the second half than Bakersfield, Modesto and Stockton

- Winning more games overall than two of these three teams: Bakersfield (+8 games), Modesto (tied), or Stockton (+6 games)

AA affiliate: Mobile 36-32, 3rd place SL South, 3 GB
A affiliate: South Bent 30-38, 6th place MWL North, 13.5 GB

Possible players lost to promotion
Kyle Greene
Bryan Woodall

Possible players gained from promotion
Charles Brewer
Eric Smith

Visalia struggled a bit in the middle of the season but eventually regained the form they started the season with. They have some solid pitching and a few good hitters as well. They have a nice cushion starting the second half, and if they can continue the momentum they developed late, they'll have a beat on the second half championship. I don't anticipate much player movement. Kyle Greene is having some success and has a lot of Cal League experience, so if anyone changes levels, it'll be him. Bryan Woodall is dominating, and with an ERA as good as his, he could use a challenge.

The Rawhide lineup has been a little better than in past years, but they're still below average. Paul Goldschmidt went on a bit of a year late in the half and is the team's best power hitter. Kyle Greene has also been hot lately, and that has balanced out the prolonged slump Marc Krauss has been in. Krauss was great at the beginning of the year, and he's a good hitter and should break out anytime soon. Ryan Wheeler isn't hitting for much power, and he's another guy that could step up to improve the lineup. It doesn't seem like anyone will come from South Bend to help out. They have a few hitters having good seasons, but the team is generally young and perhaps not ready for a new level.

The pitching might not have a good WHIP, but they're keeping runs off the board, and that's what counts right? Wade Miley is throwing a lot of very good innings for Visalia and doesn't allow home runs. He could use some support in the rotation, and that could come in the form of promotions if Arizona is inclined. Chase Anderson made some good starts near the end of the half, and he could be key in getting the Rawhide to the postseason. Taylor Sinclair has also had a solid season, and Ryan Cook has been effective at times too. Bryan Woodall might be the best reliever in pro baseball so far, and it would be tough to replace him if he got promoted.

Visalia had some consistency problems during the first half, and they can't afford to go into a long slump like they did again. I don't think Bakersfield and Stockton are out of it, so the Rawhide will have to be at the top of their game to make it. Losing Bryan Woodall would be a huge blow to the bullpen. There's quite a bit of talent on this team, and they could do damage in the playoffs if they find consistent starting pitching.