Spoiler

Everyone who has watched a baseball broadcast or show like Baseball Tonight has heard someone say it: "Games late in the season against teams out of contention are always the toughest." I'm pretty confident this is some kind of confirmation bias, and there's nothing that indicates games against teams not competing for a playoff spot are more difficult. I'm sure that some players on those teams compete hard and play out the string, but there are plenty that aren't focused and give away at bats with nothing to play for. There's a reason those teams aren't winning many games, and except for a matchup here and there, playing good teams is tougher than playing ones that aren't.

Now that the rant is out of the way, I do believe in the spoiler team. In tight races, it's still difficult to point to just one or two games that made the difference between making the playoffs and missing, but popular games for fans to look back at are ones against teams with nothing to play for, sometimes the teams not in contention. The Cal League is a little different. The way I see it, there are three teams at the moment who have nothing to play for. There's Inland Empire, who was eliminated from all playoff contention on the 28th. There are also San Jose and Lake Elsinore, who already have playoff spots wrapped up. Of course they don't want to be playing poorly, but winning isn't as urgent for them. Players can be promoted, managers can limit innings and try some other things and still know they'll be playing when the postseason starts.

In the South, it seems like High Desert and Rancho Cucamonga are jockeying for homefield in the Division Semis, but Lancaster can throw a wrench in that if they get hot immediately. All three teams are below .500 at home this year, but when the games matter most, I bet they'll prefer playing in the more familiar environment.

Up North, the picture is a little more murky. Stockton and Visalia look good now, but Bakersfield and Modesto are still fighting. Magic and elimination numbers are shrinking, but until they hit 0, those teams are still alive. San Jose is actually last in the second half standings. After a great first half, a handful of injuries and key promotions have left them as a weaker team.

Those are the situations in each division. How have the competing teams done against the three teams whose second half games don't mean as much? For the purposes of this entry, I'll use all second half games against San Jose and Lake Elsinore and only games since Inland Empire has been completely eliminated.

Bakersfield Blaze
2-0 v. Inland Empire
2-1 v. Lake Elsinore
3-3 v. San Jose
7-4 total (.636)

Bakersfield was the team responsible for Inland Empire, and they've held their own against Lake Elsinore and San Jose. If they don't make the playoffs, it's not because they didn't take care of business against these guys.

High Desert Mavericks
0-0 v. Inland Empire
4-3 v. Lake Elsinore (4 remaining)
3-3 v. San Jose
7-6 total (.538)

High Desert is one team that's had success against Lake Elsinore over the course of the season, and that's continued in the second half. They split two series against San Jose, and they're finished with Inland Empire.

Lancaster JetHawks
0-0 v. Inland Empire
4-2 v. Lake Elsinore (3 remaining)
4-5 v. San Jose
8-7 total (.533)

Lancaster had an incredibly difficult time with Lake Elsinore in the first half, but their fortunes have changed in the last couple months, culminating in the Cal League's first no hitter this year. They've done okay in an oddly high about of games against San Jose in the second half.

Modesto Nuts
0-0 v. Inland Empire (4 remaining)
2-1 v. Lake Elsinore
6-1 v. San Jose
8-2 total (.800)

Modesto caught San Jose at a bad time in the beginning of the second half, and they built up their win total. Those four games against Inland Empire at the end of the year are huge. If they stay in the race in this series against Stockton, they could have an edge.

Rancho Cucamonga Quakes
0-0 v. Inland Empire
10-6 v. Lake Elsinore
3-0 v. San Jose
13-6 total (.684)

Lake Elsinore has to be pretty concerned that the three potential South division playoff opponents are building momentum against them. Rancho Cucamonga took advantage of getting a lot of meetings against the Storm and Giants in the last couple months.

Stockton Ports
0-0 v. Inland Empire
1-2 v. Lake Elsinore
7-9 v. San Jose
8-11 total (.421)

Stockton has been one of the league's best second half teams, but it isn't from playing these guys. They could be the only team San Jose has had success against in the second half, but it obviously hasn't stopped the Ports from approaching the playoffs.

Visalia Rawhide
0-0 v. Inland Empire
2-4 v. Lake Elsinore
7-3 v. San Jose (4 remaining)
9-7 total (.563)

Visalia has taken advantage of a number of meeting with San Jose. They didn't have much luck against Lake Elsinore, but their success against the Giants gives them the second most wins in this entry. If they can keep up their momentum against San Jose, they'll find themselves in the playoffs.

Like I said earlier, it's hard to pinpoint one or two specific games as the sole reason teams didn't make the playoffs. Generally though, teams want to beat the ones who don't have as much urgency, and this entry shows how those results have played out. There really isn't much to read into here, just a few head to head stats.