Second Half Surprise

With 21 games left in the regular season, the races are tightening up. Because 60% of the league makes the playoffs, teams remain in contention longer, and right now it's fair to say nine out of the 10 teams have either clinched a playoff spot or have a reasonable chance to get one (sorry Inland Empire fans.)

There are really three teams still in the hunt that may surprise fans, and those are Bakersfield, Stockton and Lancaster. San Jose's results have also been surprising, but that's for the wrong reason. Bakersfield was hot coming out of the gate after the All Star break and has sustained their success, and Stockton and Lancaster have both been on nice winning streaks lately to get into the races. How have they done it? Let's take a look at what all three teams are doing to shake up the standings in both divisions.

Bakersfield Blaze

First half: 29-41, 5th place, 16 GB
Second half: 30-19, 1st place, on pace to finish 43-27 (72-68 overall)

The two halves have clearly been night and day for Bakersfield, who has already won more games since the All Star break than they did in the entire first half. The Blaze were actually pretty solid at home in the first half, going three games over .500, one of only a few teams in the league to play over .500 ball at home. What did them in was finishing tied for the worst road record in the league at 10-25. In the second half, only two teams have more road wins than the Blaze.

The surprising thing about Bakersfield is they've dealt with some injuries and roster turnover, and they've improved as much as they have. In the rotation, first half mainstays have moved on. Carlos Pimentel (NOTE: after I wrote this, I read that Pimentel is coming back to Bakersfield) was recently promoted to AA Frisco, and Michael Main only made one start in the second half before being promoted (and eventually traded to San Francisco.) The rehabbing Michael Schlact made his way back to Frisco as well, and Wilmer Font, one of Texas' best pitching prospects, hasn't made a start since 7/5 due to an injury. So what's left?

After a rough first half, Wilfredo Boscan is anchoring the staff. He's striking out nearly a batter an inning, and his BB/9 is minuscule. Boscan is joined in the rotation by a number of call ups from A Hickory, including Joe Wieland, Robbie Ross and Danny Gutierrez. Results for that trio have been mixed so far, but they all have potential to help the Blaze now and the Rangers later. One enemy of Bakersifled in regard to these young pitchers is an innings limit, particularly with Wieland and Ross. Wieland has already made an appearance out of the bullpen, and that could continue the rest of the year.

The offense and bullpen are affected too. Bakersfield's only All Star, the strong armed catcher Jose Felix, was promoted to Frisco, and so was the team's spark plug, in more ways than one, Engel Beltre. Players like John Whittleman and Davis Stoneburner who contributed to the offense are also in Frisco, so there are a lot of new faces in the Blaze lineup. Despite all this, Bakersfield is scoring over a run more per game than they did in the first half. Chris Gradoville is among the players already on the roster that stepped up, posting a .962 OPS in the second half. Mike Bianucci and Erik Morrison have also improved their numbers. Cody Podraza and Miguel Velazquez have been welcome additions from Hickory and have helped the lineup.

Bakersfield has lost two closer to Frisco, Cody Eppley and Mark Hamburger. However, the bullpen remains deep, and the Blaze still have one of the league's better pitching staffs. Fabio Castillo has been very good for most of the season and is now handling closer duties for Bakersfield. Trevor Hurley, Shane Zegarac and Corey Young have done a good job bridging the gap between the starters and closers throughout the year.

Stockton Ports

First half: 31-39, 4th place, 14 GB
Second half: 29-20, 2nd place, 1 GB of 2H championship, 1 GB of WC, on pace to finish 41-29 (72-68 overall)

Like Bakersfield, Stockton had a forgettable first half and got eliminated from contention pretty quickly. They played unimaginably bad baseball at Banner Island Ballpark and weren't impressive on the road either. Their second half was going okay through July, going hot and cold but ultimately playing just over .500 baseball. In August, the Ports were swept by first half champion San Jose but then ran off nine straight wins, three consecutive sweeps.

In that nine game winning streak, Stockton defeated High Desert at home and played the last six games on the road at Inland Empire and Rancho Cucamonga. The 66ers may not be tough opponents, but High Desert and Rancho Cucamonga are poised to make the playoffs, especially if Lake Elsinore wins the second half championship too. The Ports are +25 in run differential during the winning streak, so they're not blowing teams out, but nine wins in a row is nine wins.

All facets of the game are working for Stockton right now. Their starters aren't pitching deep into games, but they've still been effective. They've only allowed more than two earned runs in a start once, and their starting pitcher ERA in the winning streak is 3.27, which is obviously outstanding in the Cal League. This includes three outings from rehabbers Brett Tomko and Travis Blackley, so that brings down their IP/start which is less than five innings per start.

The bullpen has been even more impressive. Stockton's pitching staff was one of the league's worst in the first half, but it's been better as of late. During the nine game winning streak, the Ports' bullpen ERA sits at 1.36. They've only given up earned runs in two of the nine games, and that includes an ongoing five game scoreless streak. Closer Paul Smyth hasn't been quite as dominant, but he is striking out more batters. He has five straight scoreless appearances and five saves during the winning streak. Providing long relief out of the bullpen is Justin Murray, who has been sharp lately. He's not striking out batters, but he's giving them innings (12.1 over three appearances,) and not allowing runs (one earned).

The Ports are averaging over 5.5 runs a game, which is only a fraction of a run over their season average. Grant Green has been just okay during this stretch and All Star Stephen Parker isn't very hot either, but some of their teammates are picking up the slack. Yusuf Carter continues to dominate Cal League pitchers, and Jermaine Mitchell has been tearing the cover off the ball, recently winning Cal League player of the week. Prospects Tyler Ladendorf and Jeremy Barfield are also chipping in, and rehabbing Athletic Conor Jackson hung around for a couple games.

Lancaster JetHawks

First half: 23-47, 5th place, 23 GB
Second half: 25-24, T-2nd place, 1 GB of 2H championship, 16 GB of WC, on pace to finish 36-34 (59-81 overall)

Some prognosticators, myself, said there was nothing to indicate that they had a chance to make a playoff run in the second half, but a great August has them in position with three weeks to go. 25-24 isn't as impressive as Bakersfield or Stockton's records, but in the tough South division, they're right in it. Their 11-2 record puts them one game behind Lake Elsinore in the second half, and they've played some tough teams this month. Six of those wins are against the punchless Inland Empire, but they've also won a single game against current North division leader Bakersfield and series wins against both first half champions, Lake Elsinore and San Jose.

They're in it, but it's not going to be easy. For starters, they're about to begin a 14 game road trip, which is much longer than any other team in the league had to deal with this season. They have to deal with some pretty tough teams too; they start in Stockton and from there, they'll face the trio of playoff contenders in the South, High Desert, Lake Elsinore and Rancho Cucamonga. In addition, the wild card should be considered out of play. They have to win the second half championship, and they have nine remaining head to head games against their competitors, High Desert and Rancho Cucamonga.

Their August success is all about offense. Lancaster has had a number of huge comebacks in August and some walkoff wins too. The JetHawks have scored double digit runs in half of their games this month, and they're averaging over eight runs per game. Of course the ball flies out of Clear Channel Stadium, but six of their 13 August games have been on the road, and they've had great offensive outputs away from home too. This outburst is a welcome change from the JetHawks' offense in the first half, which really didn't take advantage of the friendly wind currents of their home ballpark.

A couple young infielders from the South Atlantic League have been solid additions for Lancaster. Jose Altuve, who was already in the Astros organization, has come up and provided some power for a little guy with five extra base hits in his first 44 at bats. When the Astros traded ace Roy Oswalt to the Phillies, they acquired shortstop Jonathan Villar, who was also playing in the South Atlantic League. He was promoted to the JetHawks, and his speed has been a nice addition to the top of the lineup. Jay Austin is having his best month, hitting for average and power. Brandon Barnes, leading the team in home runs, has already hit five in August, and veterans Lee Cruz and Brian Pellegrini continue to tear the cover off the ball. Even previously light hitting catcher John Curtis is making big contributions.

Part of the reason Lancaster has made so many big comebacks lately is poor starting pitching putting them behind early. In August, the starters have a 6.89 ERA, which is actually worse than their season average. That even includes a complete game by Kyle Greenwalt in which he only allowed two runs. The starters aren't even averaging five innings a start, and that's going to have to improve if they're going to stay in the race. However, the bullpen has been outstanding, posting a 2.35 ERA, and they've almost pitched as many innings as the starters. Shane Wolf has only allowed one run in 12.1 August innings, and Ashton Mowdy and Kyle Godfrey have turned in quality work out of the pen too.

Those are the three teams contending with 21 games left that fans may not have expected after the first half. They may not all stay in the race, but with only three weeks left in the season, anything can happen. There are four playoff spots up for grabs, and they'll all come down to the wire.