Using the Biz of Baseball minor league attendance database, I went back to 2006 to compare total attendance and percentage of capacity. As far as I can tell, no teams made major changes to their stadium that would greatly affect capacity since 2006 (Bakersfield's listed capacity went from 4,200 to 3,500 after the 2005 season.) At the end of the table, I initially included winning percentage for each year to see if winning affected attendance at all, but the table became too wide, and I scrapped that part.
The 2010 total column is obviously a projection because the season isn't over yet. To come up with those numbers, I took the average daily attendance and multiplied it by the number of openings to date+number of home games remaining in the season. In a perfect season, that number would add up to 70 games, but it doesn't. Because of doubleheaders played due to postponements or suspensions, some teams don't have 70 openings.
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The thing that jumps out immediately is how it appears attendance will be down in 2010. This is not what I was expecting when I started this because I recall reading an article earlier this season about how attendance is up. Of course the projection could prove to be inaccurate because each team has about 15 home games left, but right now it doesn't look good. Only three teams, Lancaster, Modesto and Visalia, have better attendance than last year, which really isn't that surprising because 2009 was the best year across the board for the league. 2009 saw three teams set attendance highs in this five year period, and five teams drew over 200,000.
I really couldn't say why attendance would be down for most teams. There are reasons for a few of them which I'll get into later, but overall I don't think I have an explanation. Ticket prices are still low, there's plenty of talent in the league, and I'm sure going to games at these parks is still a great experience. I have no evidence to support this, but I wonder if the heat in a number of Cal League cities affects attendance, especially for day games. I've noticed that some teams have been struggling on Sundays, when weekend games are typically better draws.
I'll start with the good news. Visalia has seen a huge leap in their attendance over the last two years. That coincides with the major renovations to Recreation Park in 2009, which have obviously done a lot of good. Attendance is up, and the Diamondbacks were impressed enough to extend their PDC earlier this season. Their projected total is still lower than all except two teams, but the percentage makes it clear that the Rawhide are a Cal League success story, despite having the smallest professional ballpark in the country.
Another team showing promise at the gate in 2010 is Modesto. I've seen this noted in a newspaper a couple months ago, and the numbers now indicate the Nuts are still drawing very well. I have no explanation for this really. John Thurman Field is an older facility, although they did recently install a new video scoreboard. Would that really affect attendance greatly though? Either way, Modesto has shown improvement every year and is up about 15% from 2006.
Lancaster is another team that has shown constant improvement. Clear Channel Stadium is relatively new, and it's still described as one of the nicer parks in the league. However, that doesn't explain the consistent increase in attendance. The play on the field certainly doesn't either. The team had a couple nice years as the Red Sox affiliate in 2007 and 2008, but Houston hasn't supplied the JetHawks with top talent, and the team has struggled the last two years. Like Modesto, they've seen an increase in attendance every year and are up about 11% since 2006.
San Jose has been the league's most successful franchise, and that generally reflects at the gate. In all five years, they're in the top half of the league in total attendance, culminating in an outstanding 2009 season on the field and at the box office, their only 200,000+ fan season since 2006. Lake Elsinore consistent draws 200,000 fans, due to the league's second biggest stadium, one of the better ones across all of baseball, and generally a very good on field product. Inland Empire has solid attendance year in and year out, and I think the close proximity to the Dodgers can help them, even if it's not necessarily reflected in the numbers.
Of course, there are also issues facing the Cal League. Bakersfield might be the most prominent of those. It's no secret a new ballpark is necessary, even though Sam Lynn Ballpark certainly has a lot of history. It's been around for the entire history of the league, and fans just have no interest in attending games. Now that Visalia is doing much better in the attendance department, Bakersfield is far and away the worst draw in the league, and as a result the team was nearly sold and moved to the Carolina League. Efforts to fund a new stadium have all been unsuccessful, and this team needs to find a solution soon. Averaging less than 1,000 per game isn't acceptable.
Along with Bakersfield, High Desert was the other team rumored to be moving to the Carolina League a couple years ago. Their stadium seemed state of the art after construction, and early on, it was a huge hit. Recently though, fans have been losing interest. The location isn't good, and attendance is on the decline. In addition to the stadium issue, the ownership situation is murky. A group led by George Brett currently owns the team, but due to their purchase of Rancho Cucamonga, they have to sell High Desert. The problem is, they haven't been able to find any buyers, and the team's future is up in the air. Both Bakersfield and High Desert will likely be the last teams to sign new PDC's this offseason.
The one surprising team struggling is Brett's other team, the Quakes. I double checked the math to make sure it's correct, and they have indeed seen a gigantic drop in attendance. I have no idea why, but Rancho Cucamonga has gone from one of the best draws in the league to one of the worst. New ownership tends to generate more interest again, but it seems like they've had the opposite effect on the Quakes. Their huge drop is unlike anything else on the table, and I'm not sure what the explanation is.
Although I deleted the winning percentage columns, one obvious thing that stood out is winning really doesn't have an affect on attendance like it would in the majors, which I think makes sense. In the majors, casual fans are definitely more likely to be interested in going to a game when the team is playing well but lose interest when they're not. I think for minor league baseball, casual fans will be less interested in the players and success and will go to have a good time no matter what.
So that wraps it up. Attendance is down across the league, but there are still teams doing well. The league has some issues to address, but generally I still think teams are doing okay. There's still time for things to change as teams compete for a spot in the playoffs in August.
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