What's wrong with Inland Empire?

At 10-22, Inland Empire is already 9.5 games behind the South division leader. They're also three games worse than the closest team, Stockton (who's also struggling, but we'll save that for another time.) They're not quite the worst team in professional baseball at the moment, but after winning only five of their last 24, they're making a great case. This is a far cry from my preseason prediction, which had them in the playoffs.

What has gone wrong? In 2009, Low A Great Lakes won 89 games. Five regulars in the 66ers lineup were on that team last year. Two more were with Inland Empire last year, and it's usually expected that those guys will do well repeating the level. Great Lakes was about middle of the pack in pitching but with plenty of potential, including three of the Dodgers' top 20 prospects, two of those being first round picks. Nothing has come together so far this year, but why?

1. Top of the lineup

Inland Empire may be 5th in the league in runs right now, but that won't likely keep up with a league worst .680 OPS. They're second to last in OBP and home runs, and that would be a lot worse without Kyle Russell. The lineup completely lacks depth, but a big problem is the revolving door in the first two spots in the lineup. Here are the players that have batted leadoff and their AVG/OBP/SLG in that spot.

Leadoff:
Nick Buss, 72 AB: .153/.195/.181
Johan Garcia, 32 AB: .219/.219/.281
Justin Sellers, 23 AB: .261/.321/.478
Bridger Hunt, 20 AB: .150/.150/.200
Cesar Suarez, 5 AB: .400/.400/1.000
Austin Gallagher, 4 AB: .000/.000/.000
Preston Mattingly, 4 AB: .250/.200/.250
Clay Calfee, 3 AB: .333/.333/.333
Tony Delmonico, 3 AB: .333/.333/.333
Chris Gutierrez, 3 AB: .000/.000/.000

#2:
Justin Sellers, 47 AB: .298/.353/.319
Cesar Suarez, 44 AB: .159/.229/.159
Bridger Hunt, 20 AB: .250/.348/.250
Nick Buss, 8 AB: .125/.125/.125
Travis Denker, 5 AB: .600/.600/1.000
Chris Gutierrez, 4 AB: .000/.200/.000

Obviously having a lot of unproductive hitters in a lineup is a problem, but the 66ers can't maximize Kyle Russell's at bats if no one is on base in front of him. It's clear that Inland Empire is getting nothing from the top of their lineup, and if that keeps up, their runs scored is eventually going to match their team OPS.

2. Inconsistent Starting Pitching

There is a lot of talent in the rotation, but they're also very young pitchers. The average age of pitcher who has made a start with Inland Empire this year is 22.25. Although that's right around the league average, it decreases by two years if the spot starters are taken away. They also don't have much pro experience. Here are their pro innings and highest level before 2010:

Geison Aguasviva, A: 153.1 IP
Nate Eovaldi, A: 107 IP
Ethan Martin, A: 100 IP
Aaron Miller, A: 36 IP
Jon Michael Redding, A: 164.1 IP

When guys are that new to the professional ranks, there are going to be some growing pains, especially in a league like this. After six appearances, five of which were starts, Aguasviva was sent back to Dodgers extended spring training. Two starts failed to last longer than 2.1 IP, and he was struggling with command. Eovaldi, the youngest of the bunch, battled injuries to start the year. I don't know if that's affecting him still, but he'll need to command his pitches a lot better. His stuff is good, but the stats don't reflect that yet. Jon Michael Redding doesn't have the same stuff, but his control should be much better. He had a 2.6 BB/9 last season but has walked 23 on 36.1 IP this season. His hit rate is actually better, but if he's not going to strike guys out, he can't issue so many free passes.

Ethan Martin and Aaron Miller are the last two Dodger first round picks and have a lot of promise, but they've been very inconsistent. Martin's last three starts have all been 4.2 IP or less. I'm assuming a lot of this is pitch count related since he has 12 walks combined and giving up 9 runs on 9 hits will lead to quick hooks too. He's still striking a lot of batters out, but he had much more success early in the season when he was walking fewer batters. Aaron Miller pitched in college, but he spent a lot of time as a position player too, so he doesn't have that much polish either. Miller too is susceptible to the walk. I suspect that the Dodgers are trying to limit his innings as well because his career high is only 51.

3. Blown leads

I know I haven't said anything too insightful this entry and only pointed out the obvious, but following the games has given me the thought that the 66ers blow an inordinate amount of leads. Of their 22 losses, they've had the lead in 12 of them and have also allowed 45 runs in innings 7 and beyond in those losses. That includes games where they could've taken a 1-0 lead in the first inning and not eventually won, which obviously isn't the best measure for blowing leads, but that still strikes me as a pretty big percentage. The 45 runs stat doesn't factor in unearned runs, but that still strikes me as a lot for such a small period of the game. It's not a perfect indicator of bullpen struggles, and it may be a bit skewed due to a few bad games, but it's probably still more than the rest of the league.

That's a brief explanation of some issues they'll have to short out. This was started before tonight's loss, so some of the stats may be different now.