Rancho Cucamonga Quakes v. Lake Elsinore Storm Preview

After the first round was completed with two sweeps, Friday was an off day for the league. Rancho Cucamonga is coming off a defeat of High Desert, while Lake Elsinore has had a few days off thanks to their first half championship. The winner of this five game series will advance to the Cal League Championship series to play the winner of the North division's series.

Game One: Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (Richards) v. Lake Elsinore Storm (Chris Young) Saturday 9/11 7:05 PM PT
Game Two: Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (TBA) v. Lake Elsinore Storm (TBA) Sunday 9/12 5:05 PM PT
Game Three: Lake Elsinore Storm (TBA) v. Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (TBA) Monday 9/13 7:05 PM PT
Game Four (if necessary): Lake Elsinore Storm (TBA) v. Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (TBA) Tuesday 9/14 7:05 PM PT
Game Five (if necessary): Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (TBA) v. Lake Elsinore Storm (TBA) Wednesday 9/15 6:05 PM PT

Radio Broadcast: 1510 AM (Rancho Cucamonga), 92.9 FM (Lake Elsinore), www.rcquakes.com, www.stormbaseball.com and www.milb.com

Rancho Cucamonga easily defeated High Desert in the first round, winning both games by a combined 13 runs. They bashed seven total home runs, Dillon Baird hitting two of them. The Quakes' relentless attack was a continuation of the regular season, and teams have had a lot of trouble keeping them off the scoreboard. Their bullpen dominated, allowing only one run in 9.2 IP of work. Perhaps more importantly, the sweep allowed Garrett Richards to start this series instead of game three against High Desert. The order of their starters is unknown at the moment, but Ryan Chaffee figures to start early in this series.

Lake Elsinore had a bye through the first round due to their great first half. The Storm finished with the best overall record in the league, but at times in the second half they were less than impressive. Due to some injuries and promotions, they're not the same team that they were when they won 46 games before the All-Star break, but they're certainly still a formidable opponent. With the rehabbing Padres starter Chris Young starting Saturday, the Storm feature a deep and talented rotation. Their lineup is just a little off the pace from the first half, but they're still very capable of scoring.

. Rancho Cucamonga Season Lake Elsinore . 78-62 Overall 81-59 . 39-31 1st Half 46-24 . 39-31 2nd Half 35-35 . .278 Average .266 . .338 OBP .360 . .426 SLG .422 . 738 Runs Scored 760 . 4.26 ERA 3.83 . 1116 Strikeouts 1086 . 657 Runs Against 640

This next table include's Rancho Cucamonga's two playoff games.

. Rancho Cucamonga Last 21 Games Lake Elsinore . 16-5 Record 9-12 . 138 Runs Scored 115 . 4.02 Team ERA 4.50 . 4.29 SP ERA 4.11 . 3.62 RP ERA 4.98

Here's a table of head to head results. The two rows at the bottom cover home and away splits for the matchup.

. Date Bold = Win Score . 8/23 RC @ LE 3-2 . 8/22 RC @ LE 10-6 . 8/21 RC @ LE 2-0 . 8/12 RC @ LE 6-5 . 8/11 RC @ LE 7-1 . 8/10 RC @ LE 8-0 . 8/5 RC v LE 3-0 . 8/4 RC v LE 5-4 . 8/3 RC v LE 7-3 . 7/3 RC v LE 3-2 . 7/2 RC v LE 15-4 . 7/1 RC v LE 6-5 . 6/27 RC @ LE 5-1 . 6/26 RC @ LE 6-2 . 6/25 RC @ LE 7-3 . 6/24 RC @ LE 3-1 . 6/16 RC v LE 3-1 . 6/15 RC v LE 10-7 . 6/14 RC v LE 5-4

. 5/10 RC v LE 4-0 . 5/9 RC v LE 6-3 . 5/8 RC v LE 5-3 . 5/7 RC v LE 12-5 . 4/21 RC @ LE 8-1 . 4/20 RC @ LE 8-5 . 4/19 RC @ LE 5-4 . Tot. RC v LE 8-5 . RC @ LE 9-4

How will Rancho Cucamonga win?

Keep up the momentum at Lake Elsinore. I mean this in a couple different ways. First of all, they've had a lot of success at The Diamond this season, going 9-4 total. In late August, they swept the Storm and have five wins in their last six games at Lake Elsinore. Their pitching has shut out Lake Elsinore twice in those six games, and they've allowed two or fewer runs in another two of them. In addition, the Quakes have been hot in general over the past few weeks. They're 6-2 in September, and they've only lost seven times since the last off day of the season on 8/16.

The Quakes also have to continue to throw strikes and keep the walks down. Lake Elsinore's hitters led the league in walks by far, but the Quakes' pitching hasn't yielded many this season. However, a couple starters are occasionally prone to control issues, and that can't happen. Ryan Chaffee had 46 walks in 104.2 IP this season, but he's been walking fewer batters in his last handful of starts. Orangel Arenas is always good for a few walks although he may not get a chance to start this series. Rancho Cucamonga only walked five batters in the two games against High Desert.

How will Lake Elsinore win?

They need to take advantage of their opportunities at the plate. They're not scoring as many runs per game, but they're not as far off their first half pace as I thought they were. They're somewhat inconsistent, but the potential to score runs is still there. Cody Decker is hitting .455 with five home runs in his last 10 games, and Allan Dykstra hasn't been bad either. One of the reasons their run scoring is inconsistent might be a large decrease in batting average. The team average dropped 20 points over the course of the second half, and of course they had the 10 inning no hitter thrown against them in August.

The starting pitchers also need to continue to stretch out. For most of the second half, pitchers like Anthony Bass and Juan Oramas were pitching two to three innings, and the rest was left to the bullpen. I think that wore them down a little bit. What was one of the league's deepest and most reliable bullpens over the course of the year struggled down the stretch, but they might improve again if they're leaned on less. One interesting factor in how this series goes is how long Chris Young pitches Saturday. If he pitches long enough, his last two starts in the PCL combining for 6.1 IP, they might not need to use Anthony Bass and have a chance to push everyone back a day.