Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Modesto Nuts v. Stockton Ports Preview

The Cal League playoffs begin on Wednesday, and these two teams will meet in a three game series. Whoever wins the series will advance to play a five game series against San Jose starting on Saturday.

Game One: Stockton Ports (Haviland) v. Modesto Nuts (Scahill) 7:05 PM PT
Game Two: Modesto Nuts (Nicasio) v. Stockton Ports (Murray) 7:05 PM PT
Game Three (if necessary): Modesto Nuts (Sullivan) v. Stockton Ports (Krol) 7:05 PM PT

Radio Broadcast: 970 AM (Modesto, game two), 1280 AM (Stockton), www.modestonuts.com, www.stocktonports.com and www.milb.com.
TV Broadcast: CHN (Stockton, games two and three, if necessary)

Modesto is the North division's wild card, but they were very close to missing out completely. A six game winning streak to close out the season in September coupled with an untimely losing streak by Visalia allowed the Nuts to make up a lot of ground very quickly and sneak into the postseason on the season's last day. They did it despite the loss of a couple key position players due to injury, shortstop Thomas Field and outfielder Brian Rike. The rotation has solidified with mainstays Ethan Hollingsworth, who will not be starting this series, Juan Nicasio and Rob Scahill plus call ups Parker Frazier and Josh Sullivan.

Stockton rattled 14 wins in a row in August and rode that momentum to the North division's second half championship. They finished 4th in the division in the first half, but they were able recover and put together a great final 70 games to reach the playoffs. They hit more home runs than anyone besides High Desert, thanks to infielders Mike Spina, Stephen Parker and Grant Green who all had 20 or more dingers. Their pitching, previously a problem, solidified, with Shawn Haviland posting a great second half with a lot of strikeouts. Ben Hornbeck got on a nice roll, but he now finds himself on the DL.




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ModestoSeasonStockton

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73-67Overall74-66

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37-331st Half31-39

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36-342nd Half43-27

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0.27Average0.269

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0.342OBP0.35

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0.402SLG0.432

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714Runs Scored755

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4.5ERA4.6

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1130Strikeouts1163

.

720Runs Against763





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ModestoLast 21 GamesStockton

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13-8Record14-7

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109Runs Scored130

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3.37Team ERA3.95

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3.08SP ERA3.41

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3.99RP ERA4.72

Here's a table of head to head results. The two rows at the bottom cover home and away splits for the matchup.






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DateBold=WinScore

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9/2MODvSTO6-5

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9/1MODvSTO6-2

.

8/31MODvSTO8-7

.

8/26MOD@STO5-1

.

8/25MOD@STO5-3

.

8/24MOD@STO8-4

.

8/1MOD@STO9-6

.

7/31MOD@STO9-6

.

7/30MOD@STO16-8

.

7/12MODvSTO4-3

.

7/11MODvSTO11-9

.

7/10MODvSTO4-2

.

7/6MOD@STO6-5

.

7/5MOD@STO13-3

.

7/4MOD@STO7-5

.

6/13MOD@STO10-5

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6/12MOD@STO10-4

.

6/11MOD@STO10-2

.

6/1MODvSTO2-0






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5/31MODvSTO13-8

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5/30MODvSTO8-1

.

5/13MOD@STO8-5

.

5/12MOD@STO9-6

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5/11MOD@STO3-2

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4/25MODvSTO7-3

.

4/24MODvSTO10-9

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4/23MODvSTO6-4

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4/22MODvSTO7-0

.

Tot.MODvSTO6-7

.


MOD@STO7-8

How will Modesto win?

They have to keep up the momentum they gained over the past week. They're perhaps the hottest team in the league headed into the postseason, and sometimes the hot team is the toughest to beat, even though every other team has a better overall record. Two of their six wins were against Stockton, but they need to prove they can beat them again and prove that the winning streak wasn't a product of playing an uninterested Inland Empire team. Their offense has scored six or more runs in eight of their last nine games, and their pitching has been some of the best in the league down the stretch.

The good Juan Nicasio needs to show up. I've talked about it before, but it seems like Nicasio is the streakiest pitcher in the league. The overall numbers are great, finishing in the top 10 in ERA and first in strikeouts. However for seemingly no real reason, he just gets in slumps where he doesn't look like he belongs in the league. As far as I can tell, there's never any indication it will happen, it just does. He's pitching game two, so he'll either be pitching Modesto to a series with San Jose or saving the Nuts from elimination. No matter the scenario, Nicasio will need to be at his best.

How will Stockton win?

Find a way to score runs. It sounds stupidly obvious but statistically, Modesto's pitching staff matches up very well against Stockton's lineup. Modesto's pitching strengths? Striking out batters, limiting walks and keeping teams in the ballpark. Stockton's lineup's strengths? The same things. The Ports have to grind out at bats, remain patient at the plate like they have all year and take advantage of the few mistakes that Modesto's staff allows. Juan Nicasio has one of the best K:BB ratios in the league, even when he's struggling. Rob Scahill, the game one starter, has been very good too after discovering his control in the second half.

They also need to shore up the pitching, specifically the starters pitching deeper into games and closing them out. Stockton starters averaged less than five innings per start in the last series against Bakersfield, and they've only gone six or more innings six times in the last three weeks of the year. With Justin Murray moving back to the rotation after providing effective long relief, it's important for the starters to eat more innings. In addition, holding leads has become a bit of an issue. Paul Smyth had two ugly outings to close the year, and he wasn't used in the last game of the season in a save situation. I think it's important that they have faith in him to get the last three outs, and he needs to return to form again.

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